Comments on: No More New Worlds http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/no-more-new-worlds/ Toujours Le Meme Sat, 11 Oct 2008 01:06:04 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.5.1 By: Snowball http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/no-more-new-worlds/#comment-2650 Snowball Sat, 28 Oct 2006 17:08:59 +0000 http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/273/#comment-2650 Excellent and thoroughly enjoyable article. It would be nice to see it expanded even more. Excellent and thoroughly enjoyable article. It would be nice to see it expanded even more.

]]> By: Wolfie http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/no-more-new-worlds/#comment-2647 Wolfie Wed, 25 Oct 2006 09:06:21 +0000 http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/273/#comment-2647 Yes, I read that item on the BBC. My current work is concerned only with financial risk and takes rather a narrow definition of what it considers calculable risk, after all were we to take into account geopolitical and climatic risk with each traded transaction we would require a billion-pound grid of super-computers to calculate even an approximation of the risk involved, which would be prohibitively expensive. A few years ago I did some consultative work for a well known [global] insurance underwriter and even they only base their climatic risk on historic data. Even at the cutting-edge of science these unknowns cannot be quantified with sufficient certainty that they can be used in financial extrapolation, that is a reality that we have to live with for now. The news item which you reference is little news to me. I have since my undergraduate days been quite certain that I will live to see the day when the human race will face the consequences of its obscene expansion and consumption. Its a little way off now but we are close to the point of no return with not an iota of realistic political will to even postpone the day, so I live with the certainty that mankind is doomed to die as much as I am one day certain to leave this mortal coil. Such as it is there is nothing that you or I can do to stop it except hope for a miracle. http://environment.guardian.co.uk/flash/page/0,,1921893,00.html Yes, I read that item on the BBC.

My current work is concerned only with financial risk and takes rather a narrow definition of what it considers calculable risk, after all were we to take into account geopolitical and climatic risk with each traded transaction we would require a billion-pound grid of super-computers to calculate even an approximation of the risk involved, which would be prohibitively expensive. A few years ago I did some consultative work for a well known [global] insurance underwriter and even they only base their climatic risk on historic data. Even at the cutting-edge of science these unknowns cannot be quantified with sufficient certainty that they can be used in financial extrapolation, that is a reality that we have to live with for now.

The news item which you reference is little news to me. I have since my undergraduate days been quite certain that I will live to see the day when the human race will face the consequences of its obscene expansion and consumption. Its a little way off now but we are close to the point of no return with not an iota of realistic political will to even postpone the day, so I live with the certainty that mankind is doomed to die as much as I am one day certain to leave this mortal coil. Such as it is there is nothing that you or I can do to stop it except hope for a miracle.

http://environment.guardian.co.uk/flash/page/0,,1921893,00.html

]]> By: Sophia http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/no-more-new-worlds/#comment-2646 Sophia Tue, 24 Oct 2006 11:20:09 +0000 http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/273/#comment-2646 Wolfie, As you are a risk analyst, here is one for you which is related to the topic above: Greed will trigger ecosystem collapse in 50 years from now. http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/17846D42-797C-4E2C-9FD8-D860C2D3F67F.htm Wolfie,
As you are a risk analyst, here is one for you which is related to the topic above:
Greed will trigger ecosystem collapse in 50 years from now.
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/17846D42-797C-4E2C-9FD8-D860C2D3F67F.htm

]]> By: Wolfie http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/no-more-new-worlds/#comment-2645 Wolfie Mon, 23 Oct 2006 22:27:35 +0000 http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/273/#comment-2645 Sophia, your husband is absolutely right. Sophia, your husband is absolutely right.

]]> By: Sophia http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/no-more-new-worlds/#comment-2644 Sophia Mon, 23 Oct 2006 19:28:09 +0000 http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/273/#comment-2644 Wolfie, My husband was telling me that may be the worst catastrophe awaiting us will be, not only the climatic and environnemental changes but the solutions we are designing for them. he thinks that the problem has gotten out of reach of present scientific and technological undertsanding and that we are not used to design solutions for such complexe problems so that every solution may be based on a partial apprehension of the problem and may have negative repercussions on other aspects. We are starting to see this complexity. Global dimming for example, not much talked about, requires solutions which are not compatible with those we forsee for global warming... Wolfie,
My husband was telling me that may be the worst catastrophe awaiting us will be, not only the climatic and environnemental changes but the solutions we are designing for them. he thinks that the problem has gotten out of reach of present scientific and technological undertsanding and that we are not used to design solutions for such complexe problems so that every solution may be based on a partial apprehension of the problem and may have negative repercussions on other aspects. We are starting to see this complexity. Global dimming for example, not much talked about, requires solutions which are not compatible with those we forsee for global warming…

]]> By: Wolfie http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/no-more-new-worlds/#comment-2643 Wolfie Wed, 18 Oct 2006 08:06:33 +0000 http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/273/#comment-2643 Very true. Its typical for predators to exhibit K-Selection strategy and without a doubt humans (the west particularly) are the planet's super-predator. What makes our species different from other successful predators however is that we modify our environment in order to extend our carrying capacity; historically this has resulted in catastrophic results, periods of contraction followed by a technologically based expansion to greater numbers but now we may face global containment and most likely the greatest catastrophe that mankind has ever seen. I dread the day. Very true. Its typical for predators to exhibit K-Selection strategy and without a doubt humans (the west particularly) are the planet’s super-predator.

What makes our species different from other successful predators however is that we modify our environment in order to extend our carrying capacity; historically this has resulted in catastrophic results, periods of contraction followed by a technologically based expansion to greater numbers but now we may face global containment and most likely the greatest catastrophe that mankind has ever seen.

I dread the day.

]]> By: Sophia http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/no-more-new-worlds/#comment-2642 Sophia Fri, 13 Oct 2006 19:28:57 +0000 http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/273/#comment-2642 my post above was truncated but to sum it up: r selection strategy is high reproduction rate, rapid development, high mortality, weak intraspecies competition. k selection strategy is small reproduction rate, late development, constant mortality and therefore predictable population size. In Humans, the technology culture is definitely interfering with the biological process by contributing to the decline of natural resources. I think the west has a k population strategy but then not only it is always in a near carrying capacity but it also contributes with its technology to the maintaining of this near carrying capacity and all what it implies. my post above was truncated but to sum it up:
r selection strategy is high reproduction rate, rapid development, high mortality, weak intraspecies competition. k selection strategy is small reproduction rate, late development, constant mortality and therefore predictable population size.
In Humans, the technology culture is definitely interfering with the biological process by contributing to the decline of natural resources. I think the west has a k population strategy but then not only it is always in a near carrying capacity but it also contributes with its technology to the maintaining of this near carrying capacity and all what it implies.

]]> By: Sophia http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/no-more-new-worlds/#comment-2641 Sophia Fri, 13 Oct 2006 19:21:53 +0000 http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/273/#comment-2641 Wolfie, This was Farrell's best performance. Although the movie is not about him. Christian Bales shines in this movie, he is a talented actor and I love Bales because he was a child actor who grew up to become a great one. I remember him in Treasure island, The empire of the sun... However I am retrurning to the comment section because I found this article very interesting and I wanted to complement it with the notions of k and r selection. These are natural selection strategies based on reproduction rates and rythm of development and taking place at the level of the population-species. “r” refers to the growth rate term in the logistic population growth model. For these species, population sizes and mortality tend to be variable and unpredictable. Since populations frequently are far from carrying capacity (“K”), intraspecific competition often is weak. Selection tends to favor individuals with rapid development, high and early reproduction that is not repeated, small body sizes, high resource requirements, and short lives. The potential for populations of r-selected species to grow is large. In contrast, k-selected species have more constant mortality and population sizes that often are close to carrying capacity. Intraspecific competition tends to be strong. Selection favors slower development, late, repeated 1. Pianka, E. (1970). On r- and K selection. American Naturalist, 104, 592-597. Check this site: http://www.bioedonline.org/slides/slide01.cfm?q=%22k-selection%22&pg=1 Wolfie,
This was Farrell’s best performance. Although the movie is not about him. Christian Bales shines in this movie, he is a talented actor and I love Bales because he was a child actor who grew up to become a great one. I remember him in Treasure island, The empire of the sun…

However I am retrurning to the comment section because I found this article very interesting and I wanted to complement it with the notions of k and r selection. These are natural selection strategies based on reproduction rates
and rythm of development and taking place at the level of the population-species.

“r” refers to the growth rate term in the logistic population growth model. For these species, population sizes and mortality tend to be variable and unpredictable. Since populations frequently are far from carrying capacity (“K”), intraspecific competition often is weak. Selection tends to favor individuals with rapid development, high and early reproduction that is not repeated, small body sizes, high resource requirements, and short lives. The potential for populations of r-selected species to grow is large.

In contrast, k-selected species have more constant mortality and population sizes that often are close to carrying capacity. Intraspecific competition tends to be strong. Selection favors slower development, late, repeated
1. Pianka, E. (1970). On r- and K selection. American Naturalist, 104, 592-597.

Check this site:
http://www.bioedonline.org/slides/slide01.cfm?q=%22k-selection%22&pg=1

]]> By: Wolfie http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/no-more-new-worlds/#comment-2640 Wolfie Fri, 13 Oct 2006 15:12:46 +0000 http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/273/#comment-2640 I may take your word for it Sophia but I'm a bit sceptical about any movie with Colin Farrell in it as the last one was a painful experience. I may take your word for it Sophia but I’m a bit sceptical about any movie with Colin Farrell in it as the last one was a painful experience.

]]> By: Sophia http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/no-more-new-worlds/#comment-2639 Sophia Fri, 13 Oct 2006 10:52:36 +0000 http://blog.twowolves.co.uk/2006/10/12/273/#comment-2639 Wolfie, I enjoyed reading this essay. I wholly agree with this bio-ecological history of Humanity and will give you more precise comments later. In the meantime if you have not seen 'The New World' by Terrence Malick, I recommend it. It should be on video in Europe by now. It didn't get great reviews but Malick is a poet and a very talented filmmaker. Wolfie,
I enjoyed reading this essay. I wholly agree with this bio-ecological history of Humanity and will give you more precise comments later. In the meantime if you have not seen ‘The New World’ by Terrence Malick, I recommend it. It should be on video in Europe by now. It didn’t get great reviews but Malick is a poet and a very talented filmmaker.

]]>