Floodland
Over the last couple of weeks we’ve been hearing a lot of accusations and assertions about the causes and responses to the floods which have deluged our little island. What I find most interesting is the continual references to Climate Change which has replaced the 19th century caveat of Act of God which broadly translates to “there is nothing I can do about it” but the question in my mind is : Is this really an example of Climate Change?
One of the advantages about living in the UK is that thanks to the meticulous obsession with the weather of our ancestors we have detailed records of the weather patterns going back to the 17th century at our disposal. If we look at these records it doesn’t take long to find a dominant pattern of flooding occurring every fifty years with a higher peak every hundred, furthermore it seems that we were just about due for one of these peak flooding scenarios right now. Detailed analysis indicates that the rainfall this time around was of a similar magnitude to past patterns but there is a difference in that the resultant flooding has been markedly worse than it has ever been, so the question we must now ask ourselves is why is that?
Some of the explanations we have been offered is the building of new housing on flood-plains, which seem to be a valid assertion on the face of it but it doesn’t explain why historic towns and villages which were not built in such locations have also been affected.
Let us not forget that over the last century we have seen a dramatic rise in urbanisation of our towns and cities, deforestation of the countryside and green-belts but most importantly the burgeoning increase in road-building, particularly the use of non-absorbent building materials such as tar macadamised surfaces in that road infrastructure. Naturally when the rains fall they flow into the gutters, into the drains and then the rivers rather than be absorbed by trees and hedgerows as they would have done a hundred years ago.
All this flooding could have been alleviated had these developments been accompanied by new drainage infrastructure but successive governments and local authorities pushed such forward thinking to the back of their minds and continued to rely on ageing Victorian infrastructure designed for a far less urbanised and smaller population and so we find ourselves once more hoist upon our own petard.
One day the rains will come due to Global Climate Change, but that is more likely to come in winter adjunct to the threat of hypothermia amongst those made homeless. If we don’t act now, on this stern lesson, I fear the death-toll will be far, far worse.
This depassionate account of a dramatic situation. You have highlighted many worthy points and put them in their historical and actual context and that makes this little piece worth any article you read in the press.
But don’t you mean Hypothermia instead of Hyperthermia when you write: “but that is more likely to come in winter adjunct to the threat of hyperthermia amongst those made homeless”
Sophia @ Thanks for spotting the typo, too much haste at the keyboard on my part. Now corrected. - Wolfie
Some correctiosn needed on my previous comment:
This is a depassionate account of a dramatic situation. You have highlighted many worthy points and put them in their historical and actual context and that makes this little piece, not only worth but BETTER THAN ANY any article you read in the press.
Thank you Sophia, I am mightily flattered. The thing is, for all the drama and rhetoric this is nothing more than an engineering problem made into a political one by its endless neglect.
Great post, do you have any links to references that show historic flooding levels? I’ve found a few but rather vague ones.
My bet would be that the flooding was made worse by increased run-off, caused by modern building, roadbuilding and land management techniques, as you mentioned.
Yup, couldn’t agree with the post more
The scary thing is that so much effort is being poured into faux solutions to Climate Change whilst people’s focus on real solutions to inevitable climate change is being distracted
I hear the expressions ‘It’s better than doing nothing/ At least We’re doing something’ used a lot these days whenever anyone challenges the latest nonsense initiative - carbon trading, the latest supermarket PR stunt, what have you
but actually if these ineffective solutions are misdirecting people they are actually positively harmful
Chertiozhnik @
I have been unable to locate online resources myself and refer to printed material I have access to. This information is held by the environment agency under copyright and has not been made publicly available, I understand there is a campaign to have it released but it isn’t getting much support. Make what you will of that.
Stef @
Perhaps unsurprisingly the government’s carbon targets partially exclude aviation and shipping emissions, our worst offenders, whilst middle-class individuals are pummelled with a guilt-ridden propaganda campaign. There’s something rather tragic about religiously sorting your recycling while each major airport gets an extra terminal, the budget airlines compete for new routes and China eclipses our national output every six months.
Sigh!
Am I to take that as disagreement James?
An excellent post and I agree with you. I remember terrible floods in britain back in the 50s and then there didn’t seem to be any until recently.
I can hear James sighing from here!
It’s not me - it’s the scientists you’re decrying and the vast body of scientific opinion. But it’s a free world and we can hold whatever delusions we choose until Gordon legislates them away.
James, I rather suspect that you have misunderstood the thrust of my post. I am not denying the existence or mechanism of anthropic climate change, indeed I have written many articles highlighting the seriousness of the threat. What I am saying is that there is little evidence that the recent spate of British flooding was the result of climate change, in fact the evidence suggests that it is part of a natural cycle which affects the British Isles. I don’t think that assertion is counter to the long-term climate models, existing cycles have not disappeared entirely yet and I have not seen any claims by scientists that the flooding was caused by anthropic changes; only politicians and pundits.